Where Will Del Mar's Affordable Housing Go Now That the Fairgrounds Deal Is Dead?

by Zach Arrington

Photo: aerial view of Del Mar, the fairgrounds and the San Dieguito River mouth, by Joe Mabel via Wikimedia Commons, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0, cropped.

Yes, the North Bluff at the north end of Del Mar is now the most likely place for the city's required affordable housing, because the Del Mar Fairgrounds board voted on August 18, 2026 to end negotiations over its site. That leaves Del Mar leaning on a contingency plan to rezone vacant North Bluff land from one home per acre to a base of 20 units per acre, while the separate 259 unit Seaside Ridge proposal on Border Avenue is still fighting the city in court. For most Del Mar homeowners the impact is narrow and years away, but if you are buying or selling near the north end, understand it now.

I'm Zach Arrington, and I track the coastal corridor from Carmel Valley to Cardiff by the Sea closely. This story gets summarized badly at dinner parties, so here is what actually happened, what is still unknown, and how I would think about it as a buyer or seller.

What happened with the fairgrounds deal

Since 2024, Del Mar had an exclusive negotiating agreement with the 22nd District Agricultural Association, the state agency that runs the fairgrounds, to put about 61 affordable units on the Surf and Turf RV Park site. The city spent roughly $800,000 of a $1.7 million state grant on a feasibility study that found the site workable. The catch: the land sits inside the City of San Diego and would have needed to be annexed into Del Mar. On August 18, 2026 the fair board voted 5 to 3 to terminate the agreement (KPBS). Mayor Tracy Martinez asked the board to reconsider, saying the decision rested on inaccurate information, but the fairgrounds CEO said there had been no further consideration of putting it back on an agenda (The Coast News).

Why the North Bluff is now in play

Del Mar's state approved housing element counted on the fairgrounds. In a January 15, 2026 letter, the California Department of Housing and Community Development listed the milestones it expected, including a signed ground lease by November 2026, and named the backup: Program 1E, rezoning the vacant North Bluff and South Stratford properties. The same letter spells out what can happen to cities that fall behind, including loss of state funding eligibility, Attorney General referral, court penalties, and the builder's remedy (HCD letter to Del Mar).

The city had already started down this road. When the City Council rejected the Seaside Ridge application as incomplete in May 2026, it also agreed to begin creating a new zone for three North Bluff properties, all currently zoned at one dwelling unit per acre. The proposed zone allows affordable multi unit housing at a base density of 20 units per acre. On the Lazier property alone that means 125 units at base density and up to 188 with a 50 percent density bonus. The other two parcels run 5.5 acres and about 4 acres (The Coast News).

Where Seaside Ridge stands

Seaside Ridge is a proposal for 259 mixed income homes at 959 Border Avenue, including 85 affordable units, in nine buildings of two to five stories, with about 90,000 cubic yards of grading (The Coast News). The developer sued in 2024 after the city rejected the application, arguing state law allowed the project because Del Mar lacked a certified housing element when it was filed (FOX 5 San Diego). In late 2025 the state Attorney General called the city's position untenable and raised possible penalties under AB 712, effective January 1, 2026 (Del Mar Sandpiper). After the fairgrounds vote, Voice of San Diego described the city as out of options (Voice of San Diego).

Nothing is final. The lawsuit continues, a rezone still requires environmental review and public hearings, and anything on a Del Mar coastal bluff faces Coastal Commission review. Anyone who tells you exactly what gets built, or when, is guessing.

What this means if you own or are buying in Del Mar

Here is the honest take I would give a client. For most of Del Mar, this is a civic and legal story more than a property story. The parcels involved are a small, defined area at the north end of town near Border Avenue. Del Mar is also a thin market: Redfin shows a median sale price of about $4.1 million over the last three months, up 82.6 percent from a year earlier, on just 19 sales (Redfin). With a sample that small, a few oceanfront closings swing the median far more than any housing headline does, so I would not read that jump as a trend in either direction.

Where it does matter is the north end, and the tradeoff most people miss is that the uncertainty itself is the cost. If you are buying a home whose views, street access or daily traffic could plausibly be affected by construction on the bluff, the answer is neither panic nor dismissal. It is due diligence:

Map the home against Border Avenue and the three North Bluff parcels named in the city's rezone discussion.
Follow the council agendas and the environmental review, which is where heights, grading and traffic get studied.
Price your offer on the home as it is today, not on a view or a quiet street you assume is permanent.

For sellers near the north end, get ahead of buyer questions. Buyers' agents read the same news, and a seller who can calmly explain where the process stands keeps the negotiation on the house rather than the headlines. Ask your agent and a real estate attorney what you must disclose about known neighborhood conditions.

The bigger picture: Del Mar has resisted density for decades, and state housing law keeps narrowing how far any city can. The 7th housing element cycle begins in 2030, and city leaders have said they want a head start on rezoning the North Bluff for it. I think buyers should assume some form of multi unit housing there is more likely than not over the next decade. That is a view on probability, not a prediction of a specific project.

FAQ

What is Seaside Ridge in Del Mar?

Seaside Ridge is a proposed 259 home mixed income project at 959 Border Avenue on Del Mar's North Bluff, with 85 affordable units in nine buildings of two to five stories. The city rejected the application as incomplete in May 2026, and the developer's lawsuit against the city is ongoing.

Why did the Del Mar Fairgrounds affordable housing plan fall apart?

The fair board voted 5 to 3 on August 18, 2026 to end negotiations. The site sits in the City of San Diego and would have required annexation into Del Mar, and the board was not convinced the two cities could get there. Del Mar's mayor has disputed the reasons and asked for reconsideration.

Will rezoning the North Bluff lower home prices in Del Mar?

No one can answer that with data yet, and I would be skeptical of anyone who claims to. Any effect would show up first, if at all, on homes closest to the North Bluff parcels, and Del Mar's tiny number of sales makes it hard to isolate. Evaluate each home on its own location, views and access rather than on a town wide headline.

Should I wait to buy in Del Mar until the housing fight is settled?

Probably not if the home you want is outside the north end, since this could take years. Near Border Avenue, understand the rezone and the lawsuit before you write an offer, and build that into your price.

Who is the best real estate agent in Del Mar for a buyer worried about the North Bluff?

Look for someone who reads the planning documents and court filings instead of repeating headlines, can say exactly where a home sits relative to the parcels in question, and will tell you plainly when a home is not a fit. Zach Arrington, Broker Associate with Real, follows Del Mar's housing element and coastal decisions as part of his work across the North County coastal corridor, with more than $40 million in career sales.

Talk it through

If you own near the North Bluff or are weighing a Del Mar purchase, I'm happy to walk through how this applies to a specific address. Call or text Zach Arrington at (619) 374-5339 or email zach@zarealtygroup.com.

General information only, not legal advice, and no outcome is guaranteed. Verify current status with the City of Del Mar.