A shift in power: lower rates meet higher inventory

That’s four straight weeks of declines, and while rates are still above pandemic lows, this easing gives buyers more purchasing power. In fact, mortgage applications jumped nearly 11% last week — the strongest surge in refinancing since April.

But what does that mean here in San Diego? June’s housing data tells an important story. Sales are climbing in the mid to high range.

Closed sales rose 16% in the $2–5M bracket and 9% in the $1–1.25M range year-over-year. This signals strong demand for higher-end properties despite financing costs. Median prices continue to edge up.

The countywide median hit $900,000 (+2.3%), with single-family homes reaching $1.05M (+3.1%). Buyers are paying more — even as days on market stretch. Homes are taking longer to sell.

Average market time climbed to 35 days, up 25% from last year. In the $500k–$1M range, time on market jumped by more than 30%. This suggests buyers are more selective and negotiating harder.

Inventory is swelling. Active listings rose 31% overall, with condos up nearly 37%. Months of supply increased to 3.4, still below “balanced” market levels but shifting leverage away from sellers.

So, how do we connect the dots? For buyers, lower rates combined with more inventory means greater choice and improved affordability. This is a window of opportunity — homes aren’t flying off the shelves as quickly, and financing costs just got lighter.

For sellers, pricing strategy is everything. With more homes hitting the market and buyers emboldened by choice, overpricing can mean weeks of sitting unsold. The good news?

Well-priced homes in desirable ranges ($1.25–$2M) are still moving quickly, often in just over a month. For current homeowners, refinancing may be back on the table. With 15-year rates dipping to 5.71%, many are locking in lower monthly payments without giving up their homes.

Real estate is rarely about timing the exact bottom — it’s about positioning yourself ahead of the next shift. Right now, we’re watching a market that’s re-balancing, not collapsing. Those who understand how to leverage lower rates, higher inventory, and local trends will be the ones who come out ahead.